Michigan's Move to Become a Bigger Player in Presidential Races Shot Down

I was gratified and amused over the summer to see that Republicans and Democrats in Michigan had agreed to move Michigan's presidential primary up to January 15. This was an uncharacteristically bold move designed to given Michigan a much more prominent role the primary process. Governor Granholm signed the bill into law on September 4. But all good things must end. A judge in Ingham County (Judge William Collette) has found a part of the law unconstitutional. Well, it was fun while it lasted. Under Democratic National Committee rules, only Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina are allowed to hold primaries before February 5.

This law, if it survives the legal challenge in some form, would make Michigan's primary one of the earliest (number 4 on the hit parade after New Hampshire, Iowa and little Wyoming--if my math is right). For too long other states have been the king-makers. It is not uncommon for the Northeasterners in New Hampshire to vote for one candidate and the sensible Midwesterners in Iowa to vote for totally different candidates. That generally positions the next state to hold a vote as a very important player.

This is a particularly significant position as the primary schedule stands now. Assuming Michigan's primary is held on January 15 (which the pols say is still the big day), another 23 states will hold their primaries and caucuses in just the next three weeks between January 15 and February 5. Any state that holds a primary out in front of the 23 others could well decide who has the momentum going into the next round. With primaries and caucuses packed so densely, there just isn't enough time between primaries to spin results or get media exposure to change the momentum of the juggernaut. Good for Michigan. Other states also moved up their primary and caucus dates for the same reason.

Amid the chaos of the announcement last summer, most of the Democratic candidates pledged not to campaign in Michigan. The Republican hopefuls didn't seem to care much and seem to see it as an opportunity to be alone in the room with us Michiganders for a while to get their positions across. This seems like the smarter position to me.

As to the unconstitutional business, on the bright side Judge Collette did not rule that the entire law was unconstitutional. Rather, he ruled unconstitutional a provision in the law that gives the Democratic and Republican parties exclusive access to lists of people who voted in their party's primary. This ruling, at least implicitly, acknowledges that moving the primary date up is perfectly legal.

However, the ruling effectively cancels the primary date unless there is a successful appeal or state law is changed to allow the vote to go forward. There are several options for lawmakers at this point.

The State Legislature could appeal the ruling. Or, lawmakers can pass a different version of the law that resolves the voter list issues that Judge Collette found so troubling. A two-thirds majority of lawmakers supporting the existing law is another option.

A third option is to let the ruling stand and for the political parties to opt instead for caucuses or nominating conventions to select the candidates. Primaries are better from Michigan's prestige perspective, since they allow for much broader participation by all the party faithful (not just the fanatics who would attend a nominating convention or caucus). Going the convention/caucus route would greatly dilute Michigan's influence in changing the momentum of the race.

Here is the primary and convention schedule as it presently stands:

To Be Determined:

New Hampshire (primary)

JANUARY 2008
January 5: Wyoming (GOP caucuses)
January 14: Iowa (caucuses)
January 15: Michigan
January 19: Nevada (caucuses), South Carolina (Rep primary)
January 29: Florida, South Carolina (Dem primary)

FEBRUARY 2008
February 1: Maine
February 5: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (caucuses), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (Dem), Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (Dem), New York, North Dakota (caucuses), Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah
February 9: Louisiana
February 10: Maine (Dem caucuses)
February 12: District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia
February 19: Hawaii (Dem), Washington, Wisconsin

MARCH 2008
March 4: Massachusetts, Minnesota (Dem), Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
March 8: Wyoming (Dem)
March 11: Mississippi

APRIL 2008
April 22: Pennsylvania

MAY 2008
May 6: Indiana, North Carolina
May 13: Nebraska (primary), West Virginia
May 20: Kentucky, Oregon
May 27: Idaho (Rep)

JUNE 2008
June 3: Montana, New Mexico (Rep), South Dakota

AUGUST 2008
August 25-28: Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado

SEPTEMBER 2008
September 1-4: Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul.

Perhaps a system where the first state to hold the primary rotates would be a good idea. Every state gets its turn to be a king maker. Or maybe better yet, group the states into four or five sets of 10-12 each. Then hold a primary for one group all on the same day. Wait a month to see who has the momentum and for the spinners to do their thing, then hold the rest, each group's primaries would be a month apart. Rotate which group would go first. Give everyone a real chance to set the trend. That all probably makes too much sense. Forget I said it.